About The Aso Rock Index

The Aso Rock Index is a public data project documenting how Nigeria has been governed since 1996. It collects the indicators that matter to citizens, journalists, and researchers (GDP, public debt, governance scores, sector output, election results) and presents them as one continuous record rather than the scattered annual reports they usually arrive as.

The project began with a single question: how has the quality of Nigerian governance shaped the country's economic outcomes, and at what cost? Every page on this site is structured around that question. None of the answers are simple, and the underlying data is open so readers can disagree with our interpretations and reach their own.

What is here

The Index. A composite score that combines governance quality, economic growth, diversification, and welfare into a single annual value. Year 2000 is the baseline.

Per-president pages. GDP added, debt taken on, elections won. One administration per page, with the same set of figures across all five.

Topic dives. Public debt from 1996 to today, presidential elections from 1999 to 2023, and a long-form facts collection that covers 28 years of economic indicators.

Policy Lab. A scenario workbench that runs proposed fiscal and welfare policies against an agent-based model of the Nigerian economy. Useful for comparing interventions, not for forecasting absolute outcomes.

Open data. Every figure on the site is downloadable as CSV or JSON. The chat assistant cites the specific page each number came from.

Method

Primary sources are the World Bank World Development Indicators, the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators, the IMF World Economic Outlook, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for election results, the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, and the Debt Management Office. Where indicators conflict between sources, we use the original publishing agency and footnote the choice in the data diary.

GDP figures are reported in constant 2015 US dollars unless a page explicitly notes current-year prices. Governance scores follow the World Bank WGI composite (a roughly −2.5 to +2.5 range). Election figures are INEC's declared results; we use the official counts even where they were disputed at the time, and we note disputes in the page text.

Pre-1999 figures come from the V-Dem Institute for democracy indicators and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin for economic indicators. Coverage is thinner before the Fourth Republic and is labelled as such on every page that uses it.

We re-pull data on a quarterly cadence and republish when new figures arrive. The data diary records every change.

Editorial stance

We hold every administration to the same standards. PDP, APC, military era: the questions we ask are the same. When the data is unflattering to a particular government, we publish it. When it is favourable, we publish that too.

We separate measurement from interpretation. Numbers go in the dashboards and tables. Interpretation goes in essays and per-president pages where readers can see the argument and judge it on its own terms. Where uncertainty exists, we say so on the page itself rather than hiding it in a methodology footnote.

We correct errors when they are flagged. Corrections are made in the data and noted in the data diary with a date. We do not silently amend.

Corrections

If a number on this site looks wrong, write to [email protected] with the specific figure, the page where you saw it, and what you believe the correct number is. We will investigate and either update the data with a dated note or explain on the page why the original figure stands.

License

This work is released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0). You may share, adapt, and use it commercially. The requirements are appropriate credit ("The Aso Rock Index"), an indication if changes were made, and no implication of endorsement.

Sources we rely on

World Bank: World Development Indicators (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD, SI.POV.NAHC, and related series).

World Bank: Worldwide Governance Indicators (composite and component scores).

World Bank: International Debt Statistics (DT.DOD.DECT.CD, DT.TDS.DECT.CD).

IMF: World Economic Outlook database (general government gross debt, primary balance).

Independent National Electoral Commission: declared results, 1999 through 2023.

Central Bank of Nigeria: Statistical Bulletin and inflation series.

Debt Management Office: quarterly domestic and external debt reports.

V-Dem Institute: pre-1999 democracy indicators.