The Aso Rock Index
The Aso Rock Index (ARI)
A composite annual score that tracks how well Nigeria converts governance into economic outcomes. The index combines governance quality, economic growth, diversification, and welfare into a single number, with the year 2000 set to 100. For the underlying data and charts, see the Dashboard. For the formula and component definitions in full, see Methodology.
Reading
The Aso Rock Index has moved from 100 in 2000 to about 129 in 2023. The comparable index stops in 2023 because its governance component is not extended onto the re-estimated 2024 WGI basis. The peak came in 2015 (136.8). Oil prices confound everything.
129.3
Current comparable index value (2023)
Above Year 2000 baseline
136.8
All-time high
2015, on the Buhari handover. Oil at $100. The site's peak. Then the 2016 oil crash reversed most of it.
99.8
All-time low
2002, under Obasanjo. Oil prices low, WGI composite at its worst reading in the series (-1.48). Governance had not yet caught up with the return to democracy.
127.5
Democracy average
Fourth Republic (1999 to 2024) mean score.
89.8
Military average
Late military era (1996 to 1999) mean score.
Index over time, 1996 to the present
Coloured by administration. Dashed line is the Year 2000 baseline (100).
How the index is calculated
ARI = 0.40×G + 0.30×E + 0.15×D + 0.15×W
Year 2000 = 100 · Higher is better
40%
G
Governance
World Bank WGI composite score. Measures effectiveness, rule of law, corruption control, regulatory quality.
30%
E
Economic Growth
Real GDP growth rate normalized against baseline. Positive growth adds to score, negative subtracts.
15%
D
Diversification
Non-oil sectors as percentage of GDP. Higher score = less oil-dependent economy.
15%
W
Welfare
GDP per capita growth. Tracks whether economic gains translate into individual prosperity.
Index by administration
89.8
Military era (1996 to 1999)
Abacha and Abubakar. Below baseline the entire time. International isolation and economic mismanagement.
110.3
Built from a low base (94.3 in 1999) to 125.3 at exit. The strongest upward trajectory of any president in the record. Paris Club debt relief in 2005 helped.
130.6
Short tenure, stable performance. Governance peaked at 132.7 in 2008 before the global financial crisis.
142.1
Highest average ARI in the record. High oil prices plus stable politics. The index peaked at 136.8 in 2015 at handover.
124.8
The most volatile tenure. Ran from 136.8 (2015) to 127.1 (2020 COVID low). Two recessions and a pandemic.
129.3
Sworn in May 2023. The calendar-year score straddles his and Buhari's partial terms. Trajectory will firm up over the next two data releases.
Key milestones
2000
100.0
Baseline Established
First full year of Fourth Republic democracy. Starting point for all comparisons.
2005
118.6
Debt Relief Boost
Paris Club writes off $18B in debt. Economy freed from crushing interest payments.
2008
132.7
Pre-Crisis Peak
Oil at $97/barrel. Global financial crisis about to hit.
2013
136.8
All-Time High
Oil above $100/barrel. GDP growing 6.7%. Peak performance before oil crash.
2016
124.8
Recession Drop
Oil crashes to $43/barrel. First recession in 25 years. GDP contracts 1.6%.
2020
127.1
COVID-19 dip
Pandemic contracts GDP by 6.4%. The index dips from 132 to 127. Governance holds; growth doesn't.
2023
128.8
Handover and shock
May 2023: Buhari hands over to Tinubu. Day one: the subsidy goes. Weeks later: the naira floats. The calendar-year index reflects the handover.
How to read the index
Above 130
Strong performance
Governance and economy pulling in the same direction. Typically coincides with high oil prices and political stability.
100 to 130
Moderate performance
Above baseline but not optimal. Governance gains can be offset by economic headwinds, or vice versa.
Below 100
Underperformance
Worse than the Year 2000 baseline. Only seen during the military era and the 2002 governance trough.
Caveats
- Correlation, not causation. The index shows association between governance and economic outcomes. It does not prove better governance causes growth. The paradox tab spells the tension out.
- Oil price confounding. All four components move with oil. High oil boosts GDP growth, government revenue (which affects governance capacity), and per-capita income at the same time. Priced out on the governance gap tab.
- Data limitations. WGI governance data begins in 1996. Some years have gaps that are interpolated. The 2024 WGI vintage is re-estimated and not directly comparable to prior years.
- Not for cross-country comparison. The ARI is designed to track Nigeria's progress over time, not to compare Nigeria with other countries. The global picture tab handles peer comparison separately.
- Lagging indicator. Governance changes take one to two years to show up in economic outcomes. A president's true ARI impact may not be visible until after they leave office.
- The weights are editorial, and we tested that. The 40/30/15/15 split is a choice. We recomputed the index under twelve alternative weightings (each component moved 10 points, plus equal, governance-heavy, and economy-heavy splits). The 2015 peak holds under every one of them; the trough is always 2000 or 2002. The weights change the level, not the ranking. See the sensitivity analysis.
Where to next
Full methodology
How each component is normalised, how the weights are set, and how the year 2000 baseline is constructed.
The paradox
The paradox tab uses the ARI's underlying series to show why GDP grew while measured governance barely moved.
Download the data
CSV and JSON of the comparable ARI annual series (1996 to 2023) with components and president attributions.