Timeline
Pre-democracy era (1970-1999)
Before World Bank governance data begins. Source: Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin.
OPEC embargo quadruples oil prices. Nigeria's revenues surge under Gowon military government.
Impact: Inflation jumps from 5% to 34% by 1975. "Petro-naira" era begins.
Murtala Mohammed seizes power in bloodless coup. Promises return to civilian rule.
Impact: Inflation at 34%, highest since independence. Anti-corruption purge begins.
Nigeria's second attempt at democracy. Shehu Shagari elected president.
Impact: Inflation averages 15%, lower than military eras before and after.
Global oil oversupply crashes prices. Nigeria's revenues collapse.
Impact: Inflation spikes to 21%. Foreign debt accumulates. Economic crisis builds.
Military overthrows Shagari citing corruption. Buhari imposes "War Against Indiscipline."
Impact: Inflation hits 40% in 1984, highest of the decade. Harsh economic controls.
Ibrahim Babangida overthrows Buhari, promising liberalization and transition to democracy.
Impact: Inflation drops briefly to 5%, but SAP looms on the horizon.
IMF-backed reforms: Naira floated, subsidies cut, public sector downsized. Massive devaluation.
Impact: Pre-SAP inflation averaged 18%. Post-SAP: 27%. Living standards collapse for millions.
Exchange rate falls from ₦1=$1.50 to ₦4=$1. Import costs skyrocket.
Impact: Purchasing power decimated. Middle class shrinks. Brain drain accelerates.
MKO Abiola wins presidential election. Babangida annuls result. National crisis.
Impact: Inflation explodes to 57%. International isolation begins. Democratic hopes crushed.
Sani Abacha seizes power. Opponents jailed or executed. International pariah status.
Impact: Inflation averages 39%, worst of any regime. Peak: 73% in 1995 during sanctions.
Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight others hanged. Commonwealth suspends Nigeria. Sanctions imposed.
Impact: Inflation hits 73%, highest in Nigerian history. Economy in freefall.
Abacha dies suddenly. Abubakar takes over, releases political prisoners, schedules elections.
Impact: Inflation drops to 10%. International sanctions lifted. Hope returns.
Fourth Republic (1999 to present)
World Bank WGI governance data available. Fourth Republic begins.
Obasanjo inaugurated as first civilian president since 1983. End of 16 years of military rule.
Impact: Governance score jumps +0.48 points, the largest single improvement in Nigeria's history.
Brent crude at multi-year lows. Nigeria enters democratic era with depressed oil revenues.
Impact: Low baseline makes subsequent growth look more impressive.
MTN, Econet, and NITEL receive mobile licenses. Beginning of Nigeria's telecoms revolution.
Impact: Mobile subscriptions grow from 0.02 to 98.5 per 100 people over next 20 years.
Brent crude rises from $28 to $147/barrel. Nigeria's oil revenues surge.
Impact: GDP grows 7-8% annually. Excess Crude Account created to save windfall.
Obasanjo hands power to Yar'Adua, first civilian-to-civilian transfer since independence.
Impact: Democratic consolidation, but governance score slightly dips.
Lehman Brothers collapse triggers worldwide recession. Oil crashes from $147 to $40.
Impact: Nigeria's GDP growth slows but remains positive (6%). Banking sector crisis follows.
After months of uncertainty over Yar'Adua's health, Jonathan assumes presidency.
Impact: Constitutional crisis resolved. Stability maintained.
Brent crude averages over $100/barrel for four years. Peak oil revenues.
Impact: GDP peaks at $568B (current USD). But savings depleted; little infrastructure built.
Nigeria recalculates GDP using 2010 base year. Economy "grows" 89% overnight.
Impact: Nigeria becomes Africa's largest economy, surpassing South Africa.
Brent crude falls from $115 to $27/barrel. US shale revolution floods market.
Impact: Nigeria enters recession (2016). Foreign reserves depleted. Naira crashes.
First opposition victory in Nigerian history. Buhari promises to fight corruption.
Impact: Governance score improves slightly, but economic policies criticized.
GDP contracts 1.6%. Foreign exchange crisis. Inflation hits 18%.
Impact: Per capita GDP begins decline that continues through 2023.
Nigeria abruptly closes all land borders in August 2019 to curb smuggling and boost domestic production.
Impact: Food prices rise. Borders reopened December 2020. Effectiveness disputed.
Global lockdowns crash oil demand. Brent briefly goes negative.
Impact: Second recession (-1.8%). Poverty rate surges from 40% to 56%.
Nationwide protests against police brutality. Lekki tollgate shooting.
Impact: Global attention on governance issues. Youth political engagement rises.
Russia-Ukraine war pushes Brent above $100 again. But Nigeria can't capitalize, production falls.
Impact: Oil theft and disinvestment mean Nigeria misses the windfall.
Controversial election. Tinubu takes office, immediately removes fuel subsidy.
Impact: Governance score hits best level in decades (-0.907). Economic shock from subsidy removal.
"Subsidy is gone", Tinubu. Petrol prices triple overnight.
Impact: Inflation exceeds 30%. Cost of living crisis. Long-term fiscal impact TBD.
Oil Price History (1970-2023)
Brent crude annual averages in USD/barrel. Oil prices explain much, but not all, of Nigeria's economic trajectory.
Naira Exchange Rate History
Official NGN/USD rate. The Naira's collapse is one of Africa's most dramatic currency stories.