President · 2023 to present · APC
Bola Tinubu
Day-one fuel subsidy removal. The naira floated and dropped over 40%. Inherited the highest external debt stockpile in Nigerian history. Too early for a verdict, but the early shocks have been substantial.
Headline figures
Provisional · 2023 only$519.8B
GDP, 2023
Highest absolute GDP in Nigerian history (constant 2015 USD). Inherited from Buhari.
−1.070
Comparable WGI score, 2023
The current comparable series ends in 2023. The 2024 WGI estimate is re-estimated and not used for trend comparisons.
$102.5B
External debt inherited
Highest in Nigerian history. 36.3% of GDP. Up from $19.5B in 2007.
36.6%
2023 election share
Lowest winning share of any Fourth Republic president. First true three-way race.
The defining act
"Subsidy is gone" (May 29, 2023)
In his inaugural address, Tinubu announced the end of Nigeria's fuel subsidy regime, without a transition plan. Pump prices roughly tripled within weeks. The next month, the CBN floated the naira; the official rate, long held artificially low, converged with the parallel market and the currency lost over 40% of its dollar value within months. Two of the costliest fiscal distortions in recent Nigerian history were removed in one quarter, at the immediate cost of a sharp cost-of-living shock that defined the rest of 2023.
The economy so far
2023GDP (constant 2015 USD)
$519.8B
Inherited from Buhari at $503B; grew about 3% in 2023 (constant terms). In current USD the picture is very different because the naira's float compressed dollar values.
Naira devaluation
about 40%+
Official rate moved from ~₦460/$ to ~₦760/$ within months of the float. Continued to slide through 2024 toward ₦1,500/$. The largest naira devaluation since 1986.
Fuel subsidy removed
Day 1
Subsidy was costing an estimated ₦4 trillion/year (~$10B at pre-float rates). Removed in May 2023. Pump prices roughly tripled. Federal savings notional; pass-through to households is the main political cost.
Headline inflation
Climbed to about 28%
CPI accelerated through 2023 driven by subsidy removal + naira devaluation. Food inflation hit about 33%. Tightening cycle by CBN.
The debt inherited
2023External debt stock
$102.5B
Essentially flat from Buhari ($103.1B at end-2022). But naira devaluation roughly doubled the local-currency value of dollar-denominated debt. Full comparison →
Gov debt as % of GDP
36.3%
Highest since 2002. IMF estimate. The denominator is now compressed because Nigeria's USD GDP shrank with the naira float, so this ratio looks even worse going into 2024.
Annual debt service paid
~$9.7B
2023 external debt service alone. 4× what was paid in 2014. Per BudgIT/DMO, federal revenue-to-service ratio remained near 100% in early Tinubu months before subsidy savings began to land.
The bill
$58B inheritance
The $58 billion that Buhari added to external debt is now Tinubu's to service. Approximately $2-3 billion per year in interest alone, before any new borrowing.
How he won
20232023, The three-way split
36.6%
Tinubu (APC): 8,794,726. Atiku (PDP): 6,984,520 (29.1%). Obi (LP): 6,101,533 (25.4%). Lowest winning share of any Fourth Republic president. 7.5pp margin, closest race ever. Full election table →
Turnout collapse
about 27%
Lowest turnout in Fourth Republic history. Down from 35.6% in 2019 and 44% in 2015. Naira redesign cash crunch and youth disillusionment widely cited as factors.
What he has done so far
Early actions
01
Fuel subsidy removal (Day 1). Announced in inaugural address, May 29, 2023. The single most consequential fiscal policy shift of the past two decades, but executed without a transition plan, and the cost-of-living shock has been severe.
02
Naira float (June 2023). CBN ended the multiple-exchange-rate regime. Official rate converged toward parallel market. Currency has lost over 40% of its dollar value since.
03
CBN reform. Replaced Emefiele. New CBN leadership unwound much of the ways-and-means overdraft. Cleaner monetary-fiscal separation.
04
Tax reform proposals. Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms (Taiwo Oyedele), proposals to harmonize, broaden, and modernize Nigeria's tax base. Active legislative debate as of 2024.
05
2023 comparable governance reading. WGI composite of −1.070. The current 2024 estimate is on a re-estimated basis and is not directly comparable.
06
Severe near-term cost-of-living shock. Headline inflation crossed 28% in 2023, food inflation about 33%. The Tinubu reforms have a long-run case; the short-run pain is what voters feel.
Year by year (so far)
| Year | GDP ($B, const 2015) | External debt ($B) | Gov debt / GDP | WGI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 519.8 | 102.5 | 36.3% | −1.070 |